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Long Beach Mortgage Rates Report: Fed Cut To Prompt Lower Mortgage Rates Into November?

We analyze mortgage rates by examining the mortgage-backed securities market and its reaction to economic data and events.  Today, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds rate to an historical low of 1%:

The Fed funds rate target is now 1%, the lowest level in more than four years. In announcing its decision, the Federal Open Market Committee cited a drop in spending by consumers and businesses, and predicted that consumption may slow further due to tighter lending standards.

"The pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly," the FOMC said in a statement, "owing importantly to a decline in consumer expenditures."

Why's the economy in the tank?  You just aren't spending enough money, Joe the Plumber.  Of course, you can't borrow any either so you're hesitant about spending.   Hence, the Fed cut in rate.  Normally, a Fed cut should be followed by a RISE in mortgage rates but it looks like the mortgage-backed securities market anticipated the cut a week ago. 

Let's take a look the crystal ball (market chart):

See what's happening here?  Two weeks ago, we had a six day BIG drop, which caused rates to rise from 5.875% to 6.5%.  That drop was followed by a 5 day rally, which brought rates back down to 5.875%.  Then, we had a six day BIG drop, driving mortgage rates back up to 6.5% (today)...

...and I think the market overreacted which means I think we'll see lower mortgage rates into the beginning of November.

This is the kind of volatility we've come to expect.  Mortgage rates should drop to 6.25%, pause, then drop again to the 6% level or below.  No guarantees but November closings should get a peek at 6% or better rates soon.

Brian Brady is a Managing Director with World Wide Credit Corporation, a San Diego-based mortgage banking and brokerage firm. Google calls him America's #1 Mortgage Broker; you can call him at (858)-777-9751

Laurie Manny Long Beach Realtor® (562) 212-5420 244 Redondo Avenue Belmont Heights Long Beach, California 90803 Buyers/Sellers/Investors Homes Condos Income Properties 1031 Exchanges

 

This 2009 forecast, for the Long Beach real estate market is written by Brian Brady.

If bifurcation was the theme for the 2008 Long Beach real estate market, convergence Will be the theme in 2009. Both the bifurcation of 2008 and the Convergence of 2009 are closely tied to the ability to finance Long Beach properties. While prices were lower across Long Beach, this past year, the under $400,000 real estate market was extremely hard hit. Vanishing stated income and Sub-prime loan programs reduced the number of qualified buyers, driving prices dramatically lower in areas like California Heights, Lakewood Plaza/Rancho, Bixby Knolls, and the non-waterfront condominiums in Downtown Long Beach. In some cases, those prices are below the fundamental value, and offer a great buy for investors and owner-occupants alike.

The Long Beach neighborhoods of Belmont Shore, Belmont Heights, Bluff Park, Alamitos Beach and Virginia Country Club might not fare so well in 2009, While I expect Long Beach homes priced below $500,000 to hold relative value next year, it's the homes priced over $700,000 and below $1,000,000 that are most vulnerable to vanishing financing. I discussed this very challenge in my 2009 San Diego Real Estate Outlook:

The key component to the housing recovery for San Diego remains in The ability for a home buyer to get financing. The US Treasury stepped In to provide financing for properties under $625,000, by:

 

(a) increasing the loan limits for FHA, conforming and VA loans to 115% of median price (expected Jan,2009)
(b) nationalizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (guaranteeing the loan from default)

 

The luxury home market ($1,000,000 and above) is generally a cash Market. As such, credit availability affects those housing units far Less than the "rank and file" developments inhabited by those of us in The "working class". Expect SOME softness in the luxury home market but If the buyer likes the home, she'll either pay cash or have access to Highly specialized financing available to the only asset-rich.

 

After January 1, 2009, the government loan limits will be capped at $625,000 for Long Beach. This means that rates for loan amounts above that number will be as much as 2% higher than the government-backed Financing and downpayment requirements will be 25% or greater. If you're selling a home in that price range, the buyer pool is about to shrink in about 3 months.

Exacerbating this financing issue is the loss of jobs a recession may bring. Unemployment in California has spiked this past year. Job losses have been concentrated in the lower to middle income range in 2008 while the upper-income jobs have remained relatively safe. A recession will hit those upper-income jobs harder than the lower income ones. I said that 2008 is the year where the "rich will get not rich and the poor will get clobbered"; that certainly happened this year. 2009 will be the great equalizer as the higher-priced homes decline and higher-paid jobs disappear.

What then, should be your strategy for 2009? Investors should pay close attention to the lower-end of the real estate market for fantastic buys. Long Beach real estate is a great investment and opportunities to own a property that offers positive cash flow are evident today in the under $500,000 market. There will be some great opportunities in those mid-priced homes, next year as well as the $700,000 to $1,000,000 drops below the financing caps.

If you're planning on selling a Long Beach home in that $700,000 to $1,000,000 price range, better to list it today rather than to wait until after the new year. Veterans can buy up to $729,000 with no money down. FHA buyers can buy up to $729,000 with 3.5% down. Conventional buyers can buy to that limit with as little as 5% down...today. Next year, that all goes away.

Brian Brady is a Managing Director with World Wide Credit Corporation, a San Diego-based mortgage banking and brokerage firm. Google calls him America's #1 Mortgage Broker; you can call him at (858)-777-9751

Laurie Manny Long Beach Realtor® (562) 212-5420 244 Redondo Avenue Belmont Heights Long Beach, California 90803 Buyers/Sellers/Investors Homes Condos Income Properties 1031 Exchanges

 

Remember I told you to sit tight on that mortgage rate lock until after the Bailout Bill was passed?

Well, it failed.

Mortgage rates are a little better than they were this morning. This morning a 30-year fixed par rate was at 6.0%; this afternoon, it was at 5.875%.  If you're closing on your home loan in 30 days , there is more risk that you'll get a rate over 6% than under 6%.  Lock your mortgage rate if you're closing in October.

If you have time, wait it out.  The bailout bill failed but it isn't dead.  If the bailout bill DOES ultimately fail, mortgage rates will skyrocket, housing prices will tank, and you'll probably renegotiate or cancel that home purchase.

When the bailout goes through (and the whining on Wall Street will be so loud that it WILL go through), mortgage rates will come back down.

PS:  If you're a baby boomer, this is your worst nightmare. Most of the people over 55 have most of their retirement assets in the stock market, through mutual funds in their 401-k plan.  If you're a real estate investor or buyer, this might be really good news.

PPS: Did you know that Main Street already got bailed out? I'll talk about that next time.

Brian Brady is a Managing Director with World Wide Credit Corporation, a San Diego-based mortgage banking and brokerage firm. Google calls him America's #1 Mortgage Broker; you can call him at (858)-777-9751

Laurie Manny Long Beach Realtor® (562) 212-5420 244 Redondo Avenue Belmont Heights Long Beach, California 90803 Buyers/Sellers/Investors Homes Condos Income Properties 1031 Exchanges